Intuições probabilísticas em alunos do 8º e 11º anos de escolaridade

Abstract

In this study 8th and 11th graders’ probabilistic intuitions were identied and characterised. The results of the study revealed that pupils of both school levels hold more limited and primitive intuitions when they had to deal with compound probability problems than when they had to deal with simple probability problems, and the high number of correct answers about the classication of events as certain, possible and impossible suggests that the pupils hold correct intuitions in this topic. The percentage of correct answers increased with school grade and with performance in mathematics, and more male than female students chose the correct answer, especially among the 11th graders. For 8th graders, the frequentist interpretation of probability was more favourable to the choice of correct answers than did the classic interpretation of probability. On the other hand, the previous teaching of probability did not produce a significant effect on the selection of correct answers by 11th graders. Eighth graders were more confident on their answers than were 11th graders. In both grade levels, students showed more confidence in correct than in incorrect answers, and confidence increased with performance in mathematics. Male students were more condent in their answers than females and the differences increased with school grade.